Fantasy entrepreneurship deconstructed and mocked.
In my previous post I touched on the idea of running a small simple online business that was profitable enough to support leisurely living abroad. It’s a tempting combination of lifestyle and career.
I should have disclosed that I’m not the first person to have this idea or to write about it. There is actually a book I loathe, written by an author I hate, on this very subject!

.
The book is the Four Hour Workweek by author Timothy Ferriss. It was a NYT non-fiction bestseller for a little while. One reviewer on amazon.com elegantly described it as being the “8 minute abs” of business books. Not that self help style business books are often very good. My hostility toward this one is at least partially based on the fact that the book is essentially a commercially successful version of this blog.
In the book, when the author (pictured right) isn’t talking about how he became a championship judo warrior or spectacular salsa dancer, he’s explaining how you can easily lead a life of relaxation and adventure just by having a small simple online business and running it efficiently by outsourcing everything.
In his case the online business was some sort of sleazy website selling health supplements through a drop shipping company. About half a step up on the totem pole from the people that spam your email inbox with creative misspellings of Viagra.
He also shares that the key to success in business situations is to “practice picking up girls in order to build your confidence – even if you’re married”. He’s like a mix between Donald Trump and Mystery.
Living the easy life while your online business rakes in the cash is a fun fantasy, but it’s not a very realistic one.
In the real world, and the virtual one, being a reseller of a common product without adding any unique value is a tough business. Primarily because there’s already a bunch of people doing it, and they’ve been doing it for longer than you.
This situation reminds me a lot of day trading. Many of people fantasize about day trading. It seems like making money out of nothing, and the sky’s the limit. I know one day trader well and I’ve met several others. As far as I can gather day traders spend about ten hours every day staring at financial models and performing all manner of novel analysis and voodoo on them in order to guide their trades. They all seem to be making enough money to continue day trading, but not enough to stop.
According to financial theory, making money day trading is impossible.
The theory that explains this is called the “efficient market hypothesis”. It basically states that you can’t make any money doing things like day trading because everybody else is already doing it, therefore the market prices are all essentially “correct” given all the information available, and there is no way to estimate what prices will do next, so you might as well not bother.
There’s a famous joke (amongst nerds) about this: A student and his finance professor are walking across campus together. The student sees a $20 bill on the ground and reaches to pick it up. The professor stops him and then explains that if there were really a $20 bill there someone else would have already picked it up.
This shows the obvious flaw in the efficient market explanation. If you couldn’t make any money day trading, then no one else would be trying either. If no one else were trying, the prices would no longer be “correct”, and then you would again be able to make money by day trading.
Back to the real world again: Every day large institutional investors make big trades on the stock market. Their trades leave tiny “inefficiencies” everywhere. These inefficiencies are slight differences in what the stock prices are, and what they should be if someone calculated all the available information.
The big firms don’t really bother to get these details perfect as they have high costs, a slow decision making process, and prefer to make trades in large volumes. This leaves the opportunity for the day traders. They scoop up all the inefficiencies and make money doing so.
For example a day trader might have a program checking to see if two very similar stocks are trading at abnormally different relative prices. They would then buy the low one, short the high one, and wait for the prices to converge. Alternately some day traders buy huge archives of old trade data and try to find obscure trends and relationships in it. Other day traders work on certain theories about how price movements tend to flow over time, in which patterns they go up and down. And many day traders simply wait for second fresh news comes out so they can be the first to trade on it.
All these different strategies working together to set market prices does end up making them pretty “accurate”, most of the time.
So day trading isn’t impossible, but it’s certainly not a life of ease and luxury while your computer magically makes money for you.
I think these types of situations that I’m illustrating with online resellers and day traders can be better explained by economics.
Subjected to economic analysis, jobs like day trading or online reselling aren’t impossible; you just won’t on average make any more money doing them than you would performing any other equally difficult job. This is because you are in “perfect competition” with everyone else.
In micro-economics it is mathematically modeled that when you have a perfectly competitive product or profession that no one involved should be making much money. When suppliers are making excessive profits in the short term more competition will move in and bring profits down to “normal” in the long term. In this case “normal” means how much you would make doing anything else that required the same amount of investment, skill, and risk. And by the time there’s a best selling book written about how to do something, you can safely assume you’ve reached the long term part of the model.
If any of my professors were reading this they would be very upset with me for not drawing a bunch of graphs and using the word equilibrium. It is more complex than I’m making it out to be, but still less than economics professors like to pretend.
I think economics is still missing part of the story. These aren’t equivalent to average jobs, most of the time they’re worse and they pay worse.
You need to think about the psychology at play. These jobs are very tempting. The thought of being able to provide for yourself without even having to change out of your pajamas, and to have your whole little world right there on your screen, easy to control, is a tempting one.
It’s easy for people to picture doing these jobs. Visually you imagine that all you have to do is sit in front of your computer once in a while. So on a base level it seems like you could easily succeed at doing it. It’s the same reason why people are more worried about dying in a shark attack than from diabetes. Things that are easy to imagine seem much more likely.
There are various cognitive biases happening too. In their minds, people apply too much weight to the few success stories they hear. They also forget that old stories of success, from books written in the beginning of a new industry, are no longer applicable to the current state of the market. Again, those opportunities were scooped up by people who came before there were best selling books written about how to do it.
There are so many psychological factors that draw people to these sorts of fantasy get-rich-quick, working from home, be your own boss, sort of schemes that the labor pool is way too big, and average profits are below what you would make doing equivalent jobs.
Of course none of that applies to my small online business. Well, except it being a lot harder than I originally imagined. Oh, and the not making any money part.
(special thanks to Bryan and Ian for lecturing me in psychology every night in my living room completely against my will)


























































